Ukraine has no “playing cards” in keeping with President Donald Trump, whereas Russia has many. Vice President J. D. Vance has asserted that superior Russian firepower and manpower imply that the conflict can finish solely in a Russian victory. Different supposedly sensible commentators agree, arguing that Russia’s benefits are insurmountable.
As navy historians, we expect this a misreading not solely of what’s taking place on the bottom, however of how wars unfold—and, particularly, of the distinction between attritional campaigns and people constructed on maneuver. The Luftwaffe and the German submarine drive throughout World Warfare II, to take simply two examples, had been defeated not by a single blow, however by a technologically superior, tactically and operationally subtle strategy that rendered these organizations, giant as they had been, unable to perform successfully. In the identical vein, the advances of the German military within the spring of 1918 hid the underlying weak point in that navy produced by attrition, which in the end doomed the Kaiser’s military and the regime for which it fought.
We’ve got been right here earlier than. Previous to the conflict, the intelligence group, political leaders, and plenty of college students of the Russian navy concluded that Russia would simply overrun Ukraine militarily—that Kyiv would fall in a couple of days and that Ukraine itself might be conquered in weeks. We must always contemplate that failure as we assess the knowledge of Vance and those that assume like him.
Wars are not often gained so decisively, as a result of attrition is just not solely a situation of conflict, however a strategic alternative. Smaller powers can, by way of the clever utility of attrition, reach advancing their very own targets. That is notably true if, like Ukraine, they will exploit technological change and get essentially the most from outdoors assist and allies. Vietnam was outgunned by america, because the American colonies had been as soon as outgunned by the British empire. Iranian forces outnumbered these of Iraq throughout an extended and brutal conflict within the Eighties, and misplaced nonetheless.
The pessimistic evaluation has not paid practically sufficient consideration to the weak underpinnings of Russian navy energy. Russia’s financial system, as typically famous, is battling rates of interest which have topped 20 % amid hovering inflation, and with manpower shortages made essential by the conflict. Its situation is dire, as one examine famous, partly as a result of the navy price range quantities to 40 % of all public spending, and partly as a result of oil income is taking successful from decrease costs, Ukrainian assaults, and tightening sanctions.
Russian weak point is especially seen within the military. One report by the Worldwide Institute for Strategic Research estimated that in 2024 alone, the Russians misplaced 1,400 essential battle tanks, and greater than 3,700 infantry preventing automobiles and armored personnel carriers. On the identical time, Russian manufacturing of such automobiles, together with refurbished items, totaled simply 4,300, not sufficient to make up for its losses. In desperation, Russia has turned to restoring its oldest and least efficient fight automobiles, lots of Soviet classic. One latest examine by Chatham Home asserts that the Russian military-industrial advanced is “ailing tailored to take care of the consequences of a protracted conflict towards Ukraine or to realize a sustainable future when it comes to manufacturing, innovation and improvement.”
The identical holds true for Russian manpower. The variety of troopers that the Russians had been capable of preserve on the entrance appeared to peak within the spring and summer time of 2024, above 650,000. By the top of the yr, it had fallen nearer to 600,000, regardless of the extraordinary bonuses that the Russian authorities affords new recruits, amounting to about two and a half occasions the typical annual Russian wage in 2023.
Russian casualties have mounted steadily. Based on the British Ministry of Defence, in December 2022, they stood at roughly 500 a day; in December 2023, at just below 1,000; and in December 2024, at greater than 1,500. In 2024 alone, Russia suffered practically 430,000 killed and wounded, in contrast with simply over 250,000 in 2023.
North Korean reinforcements have attracted consideration within the press, however these troops, numbering within the tens of 1000’s at most, can’t make up for the basic deficiencies in Russian manpower. Furthermore, the excessive charges of attrition that the Russians have suffered—roughly the identical because the variety of personnel mobilized every year—imply that the Russian navy has not been capable of reconstitute. It’s an increasing number of a primitive drive, poorly skilled and led, pushed ahead by worry alone.
The pause in American help final yr harm Ukraine. Now, nevertheless, the stockpiles appear to be in higher form for many kinds of weaponry. Ukraine’s personal manufacturing has reached spectacular ranges in sure very important classes, notably however not solely unmanned aerial automobiles. In 2024, the Ukrainian navy acquired over 1.2 million completely different Ukrainian-produced UAVs—two orders of magnitude greater than Ukraine possessed, not to mention produced, in the beginning of the conflict. Ukrainian manufacturing charges are nonetheless rising; it goals to provide 4 million drones this yr alone.
UAVs are essential as a result of they’ve changed artillery as the simplest system on the sphere of battle. By one estimate, UAVs now trigger 70 % of Russian losses. Ukraine’s sturdy protection trade is innovating extra shortly and successfully than that of Russia and its allies.
Attritional wars happen on many fronts. For instance, it’s true that Russia has elevated its assaults on Ukrainian trade and civilian targets, in addition to vitality infrastructure. Ukrainian air defenses, nevertheless, have been remarkably profitable in neutralizing the massive majority of these assaults, which is why Ukrainian civilian casualties have been lowering. Ukraine has, furthermore, been on the offensive as nicely. It has produced some 6,000 longer-range heavy UAVs, which it has used to assault deep into Russia, lowering Russian oil manufacturing. Remarkably, Ukraine seems to be matching the speed at which Russia is producing its personal related drone, the Shahed, which is being constructed on license from Iran.
Regardless of American reluctance to offer additional help, Ukraine’s European pals could make a major distinction regardless that they can not merely substitute what the U.S. has been offering. They don’t, for example, make the superior Patriot anti-missile system, though they produce other succesful air-defense weapons. Nevertheless, Europe may help Ukraine press forward with extra UAV manufacturing; Europeans have the capability to fabricate engines for long-range UAVs, for instance, at a far increased fee.
And a few European techniques not but offered—such because the German Taurus cruise missile—might improve Ukraine’s benefits. Germany has thus far denied Ukraine the Taurus, a much more efficient system with better vary and a heavier payload than the Franco-British Storm Shadow/Scalp missiles. The brand new German chancellor, Friedrich Merz, has already mentioned he would ship Taurus missiles to Ukraine if the Russians didn’t relent. With these techniques, Ukraine might add to the appreciable harm it has already accomplished inside Russia.
Attritional campaigns rely upon an industrial base. The European Union alone has a GDP about 10 occasions that of Russia, and if you happen to add the U.Ok. and Norway to that calculation, the imbalance in favor of Ukraine grows even bigger. As it’s, Europe and america have offered Ukraine with roughly equal quantities of its navy assets (30 % every), whereas Ukraine has produced 40 % by itself.
The U.S. has offered extra than simply navy materials—it has additionally furnished intelligence and entry to Starlink web providers. None of this may shortly be made up, though once more, one mustn’t underestimate the depth of technological and intelligence assets accessible from Europe and sympathetic Asian international locations, ought to they mobilize. The USA has stinted its help till now, however Ukraine itself and its European allies are filling the gaps.
Ukraine is just not on the breaking point, and it’s Russia, not Ukraine, that’s shedding the attritional conflict, which makes the Trump administration’s selections notably shortsighted and tragic. Ukraine has loads of playing cards, even when Trump and Vance can’t see them. If America’s leaders might solely carry themselves to place stress on Russia akin to what they placed on Ukraine, they might assist Ukraine obtain one thing far more like a win.
